GOLDTRINITY — Module 4: Typed Bus Tailer & Adversarial Debate Arena

⚡ TYPED MESSAGE BUS TAILER (/API/BUS STREAM)

[20:14:02] topic=RefTick producer=sports_ref payload={"event":"KC@BAL","sharp_prob":0.642}

[20:14:03] topic=EdgeObservation producer=ingame_watcher payload={"slug":"nfl-bal-kc-2026","gross_bps":820,"net_bps":760}

[20:14:04] topic=Proposal producer=sports_modeler payload={"target_weight":0.08,"strategy":"S1_INGAME"}

[20:14:05] topic=Belief producer=research_librarian payload={"claim":"In-game TD repricing lag persists 4.2s","conf":0.91}

[20:14:06] topic=GapReport producer=gap_sentinel payload={"class":"coverage","role":"IBKR_GREEKS"}

🧠 FINMEM COGNITIVE BELIEFS WITH HALF-LIFE DECAY

"Sharp feeds lead PM retail orderbooks by median 4.8s on NFL in-game drives." Conf: 0.94

Author: RESEARCH-LIBRARIAN · Half-Life Decay: 7 days · Valid From: 2026-08-24

"Cross-venue Kalshi-PM spread collapses when book depth exceeds $200." Conf: 0.88

Author: CROSSBOOK-ARBITER · Sized to Real Depth Law ($10–$200/level)

⚔️ BULL VS BEAR ADVERSARIAL DEBATE ARENA

Proposal ID: PROP-20260824-S1-042 · Target: S1 In-Game Drive · Amount: $42.00

🟢 ROCKET (BULL-RESEARCHER)

"Sharp line jumped to 78.5% post-touchdown. Polymarket retail orderbook is frozen at 56.0% with 2.4s websocket latency. 820bps gross edge justifies immediate quarter-Kelly entry."

🔴 ANCHOR (BEAR-RESEARCHER)

"Taker fee schedule is 60bps. Book depth at 58¢ is only $180 before adverse slippage kicks in. If review flag triggers on touchdown replay, order could execute into a reversed score."

⚖️ JUDGE DETERMINISTIC VERDICT (FIN-PRM SCORED) ACTION: PROCEED_CAPPED

{
  "bull_score": 0.88,
  "bear_score": 0.42,
  "net_confidence_delta": +0.46,
  "deterministic_action_flag": "APPROVED_WITH_DEPTH_CAP",
  "recommended_size_usd": 38.50,
  "max_safe_slippage_bps": 40
}

📈 CPCV & DEFLATED SHARPE RATIO (DSR) PROMOTION HARNESS

CPCV Paths Tested: 10,000 Median Sharpe: +2.41 PBO (Overfitting): 0.02 (PASS)